by winston » Mon Jul 13, 2026 7:43 am
vested
Open Sesame
It’s been a tough stretch for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), China’s largest e-commerce company by revenue. After peaking at almost $200 last year, shares of the retail giant have collapsed… reaching as low as $92 last week before seeing a minor rebound last week.
Keith’s system suggests now is the time to get back in. Over the past 12 years, Alibaba’s stock has performed best in the first three weeks of July – an unusual period for Western consumer stocks to perform well.
There’s a good chance this boost stems from China’s 618 shopping festival, a multiweek “digital Black Friday” that runs from mid-May until mid-June. This oddly timed sale comes just three months after Lunar New Year and adds rocket fuel to second-quarter earnings. (In the U.S., it would be like having a second Christmas in March.)
The 618 festival is overshadowed by its better-known cousin, the Singles’ Day sale in November, when people buy presents for themselves. I believe this often causes investors to underestimate that day’s less-famous peer.
Nevertheless, 618 has become a bonanza for online sellers. Analysts estimate that last year’s festival brought in $125 billion in sales. That’s almost as much as what the entire U.S. online holiday shopping season brought in, once you adjust for the size difference of the two countries. This year’s “slow” 618 festival is still expected to see a 4% increase in spending.
Alibaba stands to gain handsomely. The company is responsible for almost 50% of Chinese e-commerce sales by value, and its Taobao and Tmall marketplaces are profitable cash cows.
In addition, I have my eye on Alibaba because it is rapidly expanding into AI cloud computing using a playbook from Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). Alibaba is now designing its own chips, constructing its own data centers, and developing a whole set of advanced AI models. Its Qwen 3.7 Max AI model is the best of any Chinese firm, as ranked by Artificial Analysis, and is only several months behind OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s leading models.
In other words, Alibaba is becoming a diversified tech giant.
That matters because Alibaba’s e-commerce business now generates too much cash to reinvest in the business. And all this money (over $20 billion per year) can now be used in creating a high-growth, vertically integrated AI business.
This vertical integration is important for Alibaba’s success. Custom-designed chips are more energy efficient and run faster, because they can be hardwired to run specific models (i.e., Alibaba’s). And that means Alibaba can often undercut rivals by simply running things more efficiently.
Best of all, expectations are low for Alibaba. The company now trades at just 17X forward earnings after its recent selloff – a fraction of what e-commerce and AI companies typically trade for. And if Keith’s system is correct, now is the right time to get back into this promising stock.
Source: Investor Place
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"