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by winston » Tue May 26, 2026 4:16 pm
Throughout the S&P 500's history, there have only been two periods in which this ratio spiked drastically.
The first was the Great Depression, when it peaked at around 35. The second was the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, when it reached a record high of around 44.
As of this writing, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is nearing 40 -- its second highest point in history.
by behappyalways » Mon Jun 01, 2026 1:53 pm
by winston » Wed Jun 03, 2026 8:44 am
In the US especially, technology and AI-related optimism have become so dominant that geopolitical risks are increasingly viewed as temporary interruptions rather than structural threats.
Bond markets already appear more cautious than equity markets. Rising yields suggest fixed-income investors are beginning to worry about persistent inflation and the possibility that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than expected.
This does not necessarily mean a correction is imminent. Bull markets often last much longer than sceptics expect. But it does suggest that confidence and policy faith are currently playing a larger role in markets than traditional fundamentals.
by behappyalways » Fri Jun 05, 2026 1:19 pm
by behappyalways » Wed Jul 01, 2026 1:53 pm
by behappyalways » Mon Aug 10, 2026 3:31 pm
by winston » Tue Aug 11, 2026 11:13 am
The CAPE has averaged about 16-17 over the last 150 years. Notice, for instance, that the CAPE has exceeded 24 only a handful of times. Many of those periods ended in some of the worst market crashes in history, including the Great Depression and the dot-com crash.
Only twice has the CAPE climbed above 40: first during the late 1990s when it peaked at about 44, and again today, when it sits at roughly 41.4.
by behappyalways » Thu Sep 03, 2026 11:59 am
by behappyalways » Thu Sep 10, 2026 11:56 am
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