Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 24)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 23rd week of the Iran war and Oil is now about 31% from the start of the war.

Yawn Yawn. I no longer cares about what they are saying on TV about the Iran War. After flip-flopping so many times, they dont have any more credibility and no longer deserves my time. Maybe if Oil touches US$130, then I will start to listen to what they have to say again.

I can now see this Iran War being dragged to the Mid-Term elections. It's in Iran's interest to drag it out as long as possible as TACO only has a 25% approval rating on how he's handling this Iran War. In the meantime, the global stock markets are chugging along and ignoring this Iran War like me.

As long as the price of Oil stays below US$130, the global economy should be able to slowly adjust to the coming Stagflation.

The following are my thoughts on the various markets this week:-

1. US: The Tech companies will continued to be punished for excessive AI spending. Regulation 301 will probably be a non-issue. Any sharp dip should probably be bought.

2. HK: The National Team will probably be doing some sporadic buying. They will not allow the market to crash but they would probably also not allow the market to rally too much. It's probably a Trading Market.

3. Malaysia: I'm monitoring the banks for their coming Dividends. The market sentiment is quite weak. The Negeri Sembilan elections is another non-event and so is the coming Malacca election.

I have been buying this week on the dips and am now at the higher end of my exposure to Equities at 66%. Hopefully, I can bring my exposure down to about 55% next week.

In the meantime, the following is a good article from investing.com:-
12 High-Conviction Investment Ideas for H2 2026
Idea #1: Global Robotics and Automation
Idea #2: Space
Idea #3: Digital infrastructure
Idea #4: Chinese Innovation
Idea #5: Agricultural Commodities
Idea #6: The New Age of Energy
Idea #7: Biotechnology
Idea #8: HALO: Owning the Assets AI Cannot Replace
Idea #9: European Mid-Cap Equities
Idea #10: US Small and Mid-Cap Dividend Growers
Idea #11: Short-Duration High Yield
Idea #12: Cat Bonds

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike?; Non-Event?
2. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
3. October: China Plenum
4. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike? Non-Event?
5. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
6. Nov 3: US Mid-Terms Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (66% from 57% last week from 62% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 39% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Poliburo Support;
b. US: 32% (15 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Laggard Mag 7;
c. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$85 from US$86 last week from US$82 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: 320m barrels, lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4107 from US$4056 from US$4023;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
g, Vested in Zhaojin (1818)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$58 from US$58 from US$56;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.47 from US$6.34 from US$6.27;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "62,917 @ 8.11 AM Aug 02, 2026" from "64,159 @ 8.06 AM July 25, 2026" from "64,002 @ 7.37 AM July 18, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
j. Vested in IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "42 Fear" from "39 Fear"last week from "37 Fear' two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7490 from 7412 last week from 7458 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25884 from 24963 from 24505;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 24,550; 25,050; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to Zhaojin
f. Bought SMIC
g. Bought CATL
e. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
h. Sold Tencent
i. Traded SK Hynix (7709 Leverage 2x)
j. Traded ZJ Innolight

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3832 from 3814 from 3764;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1725 from 1701 from 1731:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to PUC


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 02, 2026 @ 8.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 158 from 164 last week from 162 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.19 from 3.17 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.15 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8420 from 7.8422 from 7.8404;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.09 from 4.09 from 4.10;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.75 from 6.77 from 6.78;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.80 from 101.47 last week from 100.75 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.75% from 4.68% last week from 4.55% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.29% from 4.34% from 4.18%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 95.68 from 95.39 last week from 95.98 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 25)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 24th week of the Iran war and Oil is now up about 18% from the start of the war.

As mentioned last week, I no longer cares if they are having a ceasefire or bombing each other, as long as Oil is not above US$130.

I now see the US November Mid-Term Elections as the hard deadline for me to reduce my exposure to Equities.

The following are my thoughts on the various markets this week:-

1. US: The Tech companies will continue to be punished for excessive AI spending. Regulation 301 (tariffs) is no longer an issue. The markets are trading at record highs and I have been selling whatever I can.

2. HK: The HK market has risen for the past 6 weeks and I have also been selling whatever I can here. If the market corrects sharply, the National Team will probably be supporting it again.

3. Malaysia: I'm monitoring the banks for their coming Dividends. There seems to be some Datacentre and Technology plays but I will not be chasing. One may have to brace for a sudden announcement on the National Election. (The foreign funds are already selling slowly in preparation for this).

My exposure to Equities has dropped from 66% last week, to about 48% this week. I will continue to selI whenever I can during this Summer Lull.

The following are some investment notes this week:-

1. Investing.com: Gold has been climbing slowly and could resume its advance during the second half of 2026 for the following reasons:-
a. The Federal Reserve avoids further rate increases
b. Investment demand recovers and
c. Central banks maintain strong purchases

2. Ed Yardeni: Six Market Signals Supporting the Bullish Case for Stocks
a. Breadth
b. Sentiment
c. Valuation
d. Earnings
e. Bonds
f. Commodities

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike?; Non-Event?
2. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
3. October: China Plenum
4. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike? Non-Event?
5. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
6. Nov 3: US Mid-Terms Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (48% from 66% last week from 57% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 34% (9 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Poliburo Support;
b. US: 29% (10 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Laggard Mag 7;
c. Malaysia: 37% (11 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$77 from US$85 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: 320m barrels, lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4401 from US$4107 from US$4056;
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 4200; 4400; 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$64 from US$58 from US$58;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.59 from US$6.47 from US$6.34;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "65011 @ 1.35 PM Aug 8, 2026" from "62,917 @ 8.11 AM Aug 02, 2026" from "64,159 @ 8.06 AM July 25, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "64 Greed" from "42 Fear" last week from "39 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7758 from 7490 last week from 7412 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold REMX (Rare Earth ETF)
j. Sold GRAB
k. Sold SEA (SE)
l. Sold Alphabet (GOOGL)
m. Sold IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25668 from 25884 from 24963;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 24,550; 25,050; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold Zhaojin
f. Sold SMIC
g. Sold CATL
h. Traded ZJ Innolight

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3940 from 3832 from 3814;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1736 from 1725 from 1701:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 IJM


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 08, 2026 @ 2.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 164 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.20 from 3.19 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.71 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.15 from 1.14 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8450 from 7.8420 from 7.8422;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.09 from 4.09 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.75 from 6.75 from 6.77;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.60 from 99.80 last week from 101.47 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.66% from 4.75% last week from 4.68% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.20% from 4.29% from 4.34%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 95.81 from 95.68 last week from 95.39 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 26)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 25th week of the Iran War and Oil is still 26% higher from the start of the war.

As long as Oil does not exceed US$130, who cares whether the Hormuz Strait is now a declared US territory or whether TACO wants to bomb Iran off the map? Yawn Yawn ..

I can see Iran now wanting to prolong this war to the US November Mid-Term Elections and I should really reduce my exposure to Equities by mid-October.

The following are my thoughts on the various markets this week:-

1. US: Earnings Season is winding down. Summer Lull is settling in. The next catalyst will be the 3Q Window Dressing Season in mid September

2. HK: Earnings Season is underway and Summer Lull thereafter. Not buying unless there's a deep correction.

3. Malaysia: Bought some banks for their coming Dividends. Not interested in chasing the Datacentre, Technology or Infrastructure plays.

If you are feeling a bit confident from the recent bull rally, let me frighten you a bit, with a recent article from Motley Fool:-
"A Once-in-a-Generation Stock Market Warning Just Appeared":-
a. The CAPE has averaged about 17 over the last 150 years
b. The CAPE exceeded 24 only a handful of times and many of those periods ended in some of the worst market crashes in history, including the Great Depression and the dot-com crash.
c. Only twice has the CAPE climbed above 40: first during the late 1990s when it peaked at about 44, and again today, when it sits at roughly 41

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike?; Non-Event?
2. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
3. Sep 30: Last Day for 3Q Window Dressing
4. October: China Plenum
5. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; 25 bps rate hike? Non-Event?
6. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
7. Nov 3: US Mid-Terms Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (51% from 48% last week from 66% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (9 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Poliburo Support;
b. US: 27% (10 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; Laggard Mag 7;
c. Malaysia: 43% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country is adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$82 from US$77 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4432 from US$4401 from US$4107;
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 4200; 4400; 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$65 from US$64 from US$58;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.61 from US$6.59 from US$6.47;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "63,041 @ 10.05 AM Aug 15, 2026" from "65011 @ 1.35 PM Aug 8, 2026" from "62,917 @ 8.11 AM Aug 02, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "65 Greed" from "64 Greed" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7786 from 7758 last week from 7490 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25118 from 25668 from 25884;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3927 from 3940 from 3832;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1727 from 1736 from 1725:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Maybank
d. Bought Hong Leong Bank
e. Sold IJM


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 14, 2026 @ 4.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 159 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.19 from 3.20 from 3.19;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.16 from 1.15 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8467 from 7.8450 from 7.8420;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.09 from 4.09 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.74 from 6.75 from 6.75;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.73 from 99.60 last week from 99.80 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.70% from 4.66% last week from 4.75% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.17% from 4.20% from 4.29%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 95.87 from 95.81 last week from 95.68 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 27)?

storm.jpg

I have not been able to write my blog over the last two weeks as our website was under attack.

I'm now exploring Substack as an alternative for some of my posts. The handle is "[email protected]" in Substack.

It's now the 29th week of the Iran War and Oil has crept back up, to about 40% higher from the start of the war.

As long as Oil does not exceed maybe US$120, I probably do not really need to read every single news article on Hormuz anymore.

I still think that Iran will want to prolong this war into the US November Mid-Term Elections.

At this point in time, I'm not sure whether I want to reduce my exposure to Equities by mid-October, in case the Republicans loses the House or Senate or both.

This is because we will be touching the Third Year of The Presidential Cycle then, a traditional strong period for Equities and that the US markets could continue to be strong till Oct 2027.

Anyway, the following are my thoughts on the various markets this week:-

1. US: Earnings Season is winding down. 3Q Window Dressing Season is here and will last till Sep 30th. If Walsh reduces rates on Sep 16, it would be another strong catalyst for the markets go higher. I think he will just keep rates unchanged. Not likely that he will be raising them.

2. HK: No longer an independent market and strictly being influenced by the US market. Therefore, a discount must now be applied to the HK market. Not buying any more HK Equities unless there's a deep correction.

3. Malaysia: Bought some banks for their coming Dividends. Not interested in chasing the Datacentre, Technology or Infrastructure stocks anymore. The foreigners are continuing their selling. Trading only special situations like Zetrix.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; No change or a low probability 25 bps rates reduction? Non-Event?
2. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
3. Sep 30: Last Day for 3Q Window Dressing
4. October: China Plenum
5. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; Non-Event?
6. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
7. Nov 3: US Mid-Term Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (65% from 48% three weeks ago)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; When is the next crash?

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 35% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; National Team Supporting;
b. US: 26% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 39% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil; Higher; US$91 from US$82 two weeks ago
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China; 1/2 moving thru?
c. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4477 from US$4432 two weeks ago
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$67 from US$65 two weeks ago
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper; Higher; US$6.67 from US$6.61 two weeks ago
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "79,696 @ 8.32 Sep 5, 2026" from "77,153 @ 4.56 PM Aug 22, 2026" from "63,041 @ 10.05 AM Aug 15, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; "42 Fear" from "64 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7674 from 7712 last week from 7684 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought BABA
j. Bought Broadcom
k. Traded META

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25650 from 25583 from 25997;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024); 14800 (Oct 2022);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Alibaba
f. Bought CATL
g. Traded 1/3 Baidu
h. Traded China Life

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3939 from 3952 from 3905;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1708 from 1726 from 1736:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Public Bank
d. Sold Hong Leong Bank
e. Traded Zetrix


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 04, 2026 @ 4.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY; Stronger; 156 from 159 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.19 from 3.19 two weeks ago
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.72 from 0.71 two weeks ago;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 two weeks ago;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8408 from 7.8467
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.02 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.28 two weeks ago
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.71 from 6.74 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.08 from 99.73 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.78% from 4.66% three weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.38% from 4.20% three weeks ago;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.27 from 95.86 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 28)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 30th week of the Iran War and Oil is about 54% higher from the start of the war.

WTI Oil is now at about US$100 and the market is starting to take notice.

Iran probably wants to prolong this war into the US November Mid-Term Elections.

After the Mid-Term elections, it's likely that the US will unleash another round of bombing.

Anyway, the markets could be quite sanguine for the following reasons:-
1. 3Q Window Dressing activities before Sept 30th (Xmas Bonus)
2. At the beginning of October, we will have "new money from the new month"
3. 3Q Earnings Season will begin in the second week of October; Very likely to beat expectations;

My exposure to Equities has crept up 72%, from about 45% three weeks ago. I should remind myself to be less adventurous as this is a traditionally weak period for the markets although Summer Travel is almost over.

The headwinds are still there eg. Elevated Interest Rates, High Oil Prices, Food Inflation, Supply Chain Disruption, Ukraine War, Iran War, Weak Global Economy etc.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 15 & 16: FOMC; No change or 25 bps rates reduction? Non-Event?
2. Sep 24: Xi Visiting US; Bought Soyabeans; Maybe another 200 Boeing Planes?
3. Sep 30: Last Day for 3Q Window Dressing
4. October: China Plenum
5. October: 3Q Earnings
6. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; Non-Event?
7. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
8. Nov 3: US Mid-Term Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (72% from 65% last week from 48% two weeks ago)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; When is the next crash?

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 36% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; National Team Supporting;
b. US: 30% (14 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 34% (13 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil; Higher; US$100 from US$91 last week from US$82 two weeks ago
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China; 1/2 moving thru?
c. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4390 from US$4477 from US$4432
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$65 from US$67 from US$65
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper; Lower; US$6.56 from US$6.67 from US$6.61
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "77,042 @ 6.30 PM Sep 11, 2026" from "79,696 @ 8.32 Sep 5, 2026" from "77,153 @ 4.56 PM Aug 22, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "33 fear" from "42 Fear";
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7657 from 7674 last week from 7712 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought GOOGL
j. Bought GRAB

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24805 from 25650 from 25583;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3888 from 3939 from 3952;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1687 from 1708 from 1726:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought CIMB
d. Sold 1/2 Public Bank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 11, 2026 @ 6.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY; Stronger; 154 from 156 last week from 159 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.20 from 3.19 from 3.19;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.71 from 0.72 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8422 from 7.8408 from 7.8467
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.05 from 4.02 from 4.09;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.26 from 1.27 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.68 from 6.71 from 6.74;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.17 from 99.08 last week from 99.73 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.97% from 4.78% last week from 4.66% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.63% from 4.38% from 4.20%;

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.61 from 95.27 from 95.86;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 29)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 31st week of the Iran War and Oil is now about 54% higher from the start of the war. (WTI Oil is now at about US$100 versus US$65 at the start of the war).

Iran probably wants to prolong this war into the US November Mid-Term Elections. (The Houthis were attacking Riyadh this morning). It looks like the Iranians will not allow the Administration to just leave the war so easily before the Mid Terms.

After the Mid-Term elections, it's likely that the US will unleash another round of bombing.
However, I saw some reports that the Administration may have used up about half to two-thirds of their weapons eg. missiles, interceptors etc. and if there's another war somewhere else, they may not have enough weapons for that next war. Taiwan?

In spite of the above, I'm expecting the markets to be quite sanguine:-
1. Before Sep 30th for 3Q Window Dressing activities
2. At the beginning of October, we will have "new money from the new month"
3. 3Q Earnings Season will begin in the second week of October; Very likely to beat expectations;

If there's going to be a dip, it would probably between Oct 2nd to Oct 12th, before the start of the 3Q US Earnings season on Oct 13.

If the opportunity presents itself, I will try to do some selling during the current Window Dressing Session as my exposure to Equities is on the high side at 71%.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 24: Will Xi be visiting the US? He was supposedly not well when he was in India
2. Sep 30: Last Day for 3Q Window Dressing
3. October: China Plenum
4. October 13: US - Beginning of 3Q Earnings
5. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; Non-Event?
6. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
7. Nov 3: US Mid-Term Election


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (71% from 72% last week from 65% two weeks ago)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; When is the next crash?

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 36% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; National Team Supporting;
b. US: 28% (13 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 34% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. About 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil; Flat; US$100 from US$100 last week from US$91 two weeks ago
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China; 1/2 moving thru?
c. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4416 from US$4390 from US$4477;
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$67 from US$65 from US$67;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper; Higher; US$6.72 from US$6.56 from US$6.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "77,764 @ 4.14 PM Sept 18, 2026" from "77,042 @ 6.30 PM Sep 11, 2026" from "79,696 @ 8.32 Sep 5, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "29 Fear" from "33 fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7651 from 7657 last week from 7674 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7600
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold GOOGL

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24748 from 24805 from 25650;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Hesai
f. Traded SMIC

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3912 from 3888 from 3939;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1666 from 1687 from 1708:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Zetrix
d. Sold CIMB


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 18, 2026 @ 4.17 PM)

1. USD to JPY; Weaker; 158 from 154 last week from 156 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.20 from 3.20 from 3.19;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8448 from 7.8422 from 7.8408
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.08 from 4.05 from 4.02;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.28 from 1.26 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.70 from 6.68 from 6.71;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.33 from 99.17 last week from 99.08 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 5.00% from 4.97% last week from 4.78% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.75% from 4.63% from 4.38%;

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.55 from 94.61 from 95.27;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 30)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 32nd week of the Iran War and Oil is about 42% higher from the start of the war. (WTI Oil is now at about US$ 92 versus US$65 at the start of the war).

I think the following will still be happening:-
1. Iran probably wants to prolong this war into the Mid-Term Elections eventhough they have offered to end the war before the Mid-Term Elections
2. After the Mid-Term elections, it's likely that the US will unleash another round of bombing.

In the meantime, I'm expecting the markets to be quite sanguine:-
1. Before Sep 30th = 3Q Window Dressing activities
2. At the beginning of October, we will have "new money from the new month"
3. 3Q Earnings Season will begin in the second week of October; Very likely to beat expectations again;

If there's going to be a dip, it would probably between Oct 2nd to Oct 12th (before the start of the 3Q US Earnings season on Oct 13). Thereafter, the next dip could be in November, when people get fed up of hearing about the earnings.

As the markets have rallied a bit, I have reduced my exposure to Equities, from about 75% last week to about 62% now. Going forward, I will try to continue to sell into any strength.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Sep 30: Last Day for 3Q Window Dressing
2. October: China Plenum
3. October 13: US - Beginning of 3Q Earnings
4. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; Non-Event?
5. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
6. Nov 3: US Mid-Term Election
7. Dec: Melaka Elections; Non-Event?
8. Dec 8 & 9: FOMC Meeting; Another 25 bps hike? Non-Event?
9. Jan 10, 2027: Expiry of US-China Trade Truce
10. Feb 2027: Sarawak Elections; Non-Event?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (62% from 71% last week from 72% two weeks ago)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; When is the next crash?

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 35% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
b. US: 31% (13 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 34% (12 Counters); Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. About 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil; Lower; US$92 from US$100 last week from US$100 two weeks ago
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China; 1/2 moving thru?
c. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4320 from US$4416 from US$4390;
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$65 from US$67 from US$65;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper; Higher; US$6.78 from US$6.72 from US$6.56;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "83,910 @ 8.47 AM Sep 26, 2026" from "77,764 @ 4.14 PM Sept 18, 2026" from "77,042 @ 6.30 PM Sep 11, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "37 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week from "33 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7743 from 7651 last week from 7657 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 7320; 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 8000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold 1/3 ARKG (Genomics ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24510 from 24748 from 24805;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold 1/3 Alibaba
f. Sold 1/4 Baidu
g. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3888 from 3912 from 3888;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1672 from 1666 from 1687:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Maybank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 26, 2026 @ 3.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY; Stronger; 157 from 158 last week from 154 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.19 from 3.20 from 3.20;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.70 from 0.71 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.14 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8441 from 7.8448 from 7.8422;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.07 from 4.08 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.26;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.71 from 6.70 from 6.68;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.03 from 100.33 last week from 99.17 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 5.17% from 5.00% last week from 4.97% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.86% from 4.75% from 4.63%;

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 93.61 from 94.55 from 94.61;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 31)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 33rd week of the Iran War and Oil is still about 40% higher from the start of the war. (WTI Oil is now at about US$ 91 versus US$65 at the start of the war).

I think the following will still be happening:-
1. Iran probably wants to prolong this war into the US November Mid-Term Elections
2. After the Mid-Term elections, the US will likely unleash another round of bombing. (Another aircraft carrier and an additional 10,000 troops, have already being deployed).

I'm expecting the markets to be a bit weak between now and Oct 13th (US Earnings Season).

As I will be travelling for the next two weeks, I will not be doing much trading unless there's a major crash or a very strong rally.

There are still a lot of headwinds out there including:-
1. High Oil Prices - Russia, Middle East
2. Elevated Interest Rates
3. Supply Chain Disruption
4. High Inflation From Iran War
5. Tariffs?
6. Cold War - China & US
etc.

However, the above risks are not new news.
Re: Sunday Reflection

It's now the 33rd week (8 months) of the Iran War. In that 8 months, instead of crashing, the US markets have continued to grind higher and higher.

So maybe there's no need to be too pessimistic about any of the risks out there eg. Iran, Ukraine, High Oil Prices, Elevated Interest Rates, Inflation, Supply Chain Disruption etc.

As long as you know your Risk Management, Asset Allocation, Position Sizing, Diversification, Company Fundamentals, Stop Loss etc. there's no need to be "paralyzed" by the "Doom & Gloom" gurus out there.

Yes, a "Black Swan" event can suddenly jolt the market but the last "Black Swan" was about 16 years ago (Subprime), a long time to be out of the markets.

Even when a "Black Swan" happens, as long as you have some Cash, there are going to be bargains out there. One can also play the "Black Swan" by buying Put Warrants or Inverse ETFs, if you expect the "Black Swan" to last a few months.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Oct - Dec: US Tax Loss Selling
2. October: China Plenum
3. October 13: US - Beginning of 3Q Earnings
4. Oct 27 & 28: FOMC; Non-Event?
5. Nov & Dec: Super El-Nino
6. Nov 3: US Mid-Term Election
7. Dec: Melaka Elections; Non-Event?
8. Dec 8 & 9: FOMC Meeting; Another 25 bps hike? Non-Event?
9. Jan 10, 2027: Expiry of US-China Trade Truce
10. Feb 2027: Sarawak Elections; Non-Event?

I will be travelling next week so will not be writing my Weekly Investment Blog next Sunday.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (69% from 62% last week from 71% two weeks ago)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; When is the next crash?

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 31% (11 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors; National Team Will Support;
b. US: 29% (14 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 40% (12 Counters); Elections; Foreigners Selling?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. About 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil; Lower; US$91 from US$92 last week from US$100 two weeks ago
Support: US$65 (Feb 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China; 1/2 moving thru?
c. US SPR: < 300m barrels (15 days for US), lowest since 1983
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4172 from US$4320 from US$4416;
Support: 3960; 3450 (Aug 2025); 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$61 from US$65 from US$67;
Resistance: US$93; US$100; Support: US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Vested in SLV (Silver ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper; Lower; US$6.58 from US$6.78 from US$6.72;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "84,538 @ 8.22 AM Oct 3, 2026" from "83,910 @ 8.47 AM Sep 26, 2026" from "77,764 @ 4.14 PM Sept 18, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m; Max 21m Bitcoins;
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "31 Fear" from "37 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 7651 from 7743 last week from 7651 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 7320; 6850; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 8000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 35; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 23972 from 24510 from 24748;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 23,825, 22,500 (Jun 2026); 21550; 19800 (Apr 2025); 15300 (Jan 2024);
b. Resistance: 26,200; 26,600 (Apr 2026); 28,000 (Jan 2026); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3842 from 3888 from 3912;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1631 from 1672 from 1666:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
d. Bought Zetrix
d. Added to Hong Leong Bank
e. Sold 1/4 Illiquid Counter

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 26, 2026 @ 3.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 158 from 157 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to continue rising in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.19 from 3.19 from 3.20;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.13 from 1.14 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8468 from 7.8441 from 7.8448;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.10 from 4.07 from 4.08;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.88 to 4.28
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.73 from 6.71 from 6.70;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.92 from 101.03 last week from 100.33 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 5.28% from 5.17% last week from 5.00% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.83% from 4.86% from 4.75%;

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 92.39 from 93.61 from 94.55;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.