SpaceX (SPCX)

[behappyalways]

Mapping SpaceX's Lockup Expirations: HSBC Calculates When The Shares Could Hit The Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mappi ... hit-market

[winston]

not vested

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. – Priced for Mars, funded from Earth

Recommendation: Sell (Initiation), Last done: US$114.98, TP: US$75.00, Analyst: Glenn Thum

Dominant launch franchise and a fast-growing satellite broadband business, but only 22% of FY25 revenue came from launch.

Connectivity is the profit engine, with revenue up 50% to US$11.4bn and a 39% segment operating margin.

Loss-making and negative cash flows until at least FY30e.

FY25 operating loss of US$2.6bn and net loss of US$4.9bn, with free cash outflow of US$14bn.

We forecast negative free cash flow every year to FY30e, cumulatively ~US$90bn.

AI is the growth story but rests on compute contracts that expire by end-2029.

AI revenue was only US$3.2bn in FY25 against a US$6.4bn segment operating loss.

We forecast group revenue peaking at US$58bn in FY28e, then declining.

Initiate coverage with a SELL recommendation and DCF-target price (WACC 10.0%, g 3.5%) of US$75.00.

Source: Phillips

https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/SPCX/

[behappyalways]

SpaceX secures $1.6 billion contract! US military backing accelerates commercialization; Low-Eart...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-oZ0WT6DOJI

[winston]

not vested

SpaceX quarterly revenue surges in debut results on strong growth in its Starlink business

92% rise in revenue for the April-June quarter, buoyed by strong growth in its Starlink satellite-internet and AI businesses.

It reported revenue of US$7.8 billion, compared with US$4.1 billion a year earlier.

Starlink and SpaceX's broader connectivity operations, remain the company's primary financial engine, underpinning CEO Elon Musk's push to build an AI-first business that extends beyond renting compute capacity to developing frontier models, consumer and enterprise software and eventually, data centers in space.

The company's satellite-internet unit has continued to expand its global subscriber base, aided by launches of additional satellites and a growing range of consumer, enterprise, aviation, maritime and government services.

Investors are watching whether SpaceX can maintain growth while improving the economics of its network, particularly as it spends heavily to expand coverage, increase capacity and develop direct-to-device mobile services.

SpaceX's AI business, which includes xAI, Grok, and social-media platform X, and a rapidly expanding data center operation, has been its biggest area of investment. The business is generating revenue from compute contracts with Anthropic, Alphabet's Google and Reflection AI, though a portion of its recurring revenue has yet to be recognized.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/339057/

[behappyalways]

SpaceX Slides Despite Big Revenue Beat, Tame CapEx
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/space ... tame-capex

[winston]

not vested

SpaceX: Love the Company, But the Stock Is a Harder Call
Written by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 8/5/2026.

SpaceX posted strong quarterly revenue growth of 92% year-over-year, but persistent cash burn and heavy capital expenditures continue to pressure its financial outlook.

The stock trades at over 200 times earnings and a $1.4 trillion valuation, leaving little room for error and significant downside risk even after its post-IPO decline.

Upcoming insider lockup expirations, rising short interest, and exclusion from major indices like the S&P 500 present near-term risks that could outweigh analysts' optimistic price targets.

Source: Market Beat

[behappyalways]

The first insider share lockup expires today and more than doubles the float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion. That means about 911.5 million shares of new supply are inbound for the market


"In Uncharted Waters": The SpaceX Lockup Expiration Begins
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uncha ... ion-begins

[winston]

Morgan Stanley flags four catalysts for SpaceX stock through year-end

by Ayushman Ojha

Grok 4.7 could arrive within three to four weeks, while Grok 5 is expected before year-end.

Grok token volumes tripled after the release of Grok 4.5.

The second major catalyst is Starship Flight 14, which Morgan Stanley expects in early September.

A third catalyst is the potential for higher artificial intelligence computing prices. CoreWeave's roughly 25% price increase across its products suggests its SpaceX pricing assumptions could prove too conservative.

The fourth is a potential distributed inference cloud using robots and other connected devices. Morgan Stanley estimates 2.2 billion robots could be operating by 2040, with 500 watts of computing capacity each, equivalent to 1.1 terawatts of aggregate compute potentially connected through Starlink.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... nd-4861777

[winston]

not vested

SpaceX - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* 75.00
Recommendation SELL

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. – AI compute drives growth on 90-day contracts

2Q26 revenue of US$7.8bn rose 92% YoY, with 1H26 revenue at 43% of our FY26e forecast.

Growth came from:
1) AI revenue up 247% YoY, of which US$1.6bn was the initial ramp on Cloud Services Agreements signed in the quarter;
2) Connectivity up 66% YoY as Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0mn and enterprise and government revenue rose 108%; and
3) Space up 29% YoY on more large customer launches.

It ended 2Q26 with US$100bn of cash and securities after raising US$85.7bn net at IPO and US$25bn of bonds.

Connectivity produced the margin, with segment operating income up 79% YoY, ahead of revenue.

ARPU fell 22% YoY to US$66 as growth moved to lower-priced markets.

Management guided capex in the next two quarters at roughly 2Q26’s US$18.4bn, compute capacity above 2 GW by December (prev. 1.4 GW in June), and a US$100bn annualised revenue run rate by December including Cursor, which has not closed.

Maintain SELL with an unchanged target price of US$75.00. We keep our FY26e estimates unchanged.

Our valuation is based on a DCF valuation using a 10.0% WACC and 3.5% terminal growth rate.

We remain cautious as the revenue that turned AI profitable is the least durable. Cloud services charge monthly fees and either party can terminate on 90 days’ notice after the initial ramp. Furthermore, one AI customer accounted for 19.5% of 2Q26 group revenue, up from under 10% a year ago;

Space lost US$542mn at the operating line; and capex was 2.4x revenue.

A re-rating requires these compute contracts to be converted into multi-year commitments.

Source: Phillips

https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/SPCX/

[behappyalways]

There are some big names holding SpaceX, according to a report from Yahoo Finance.
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/2089421583119217090