Microsoft (MSFT) / Bill Gates 02 (Apr 18 - Dec 27)

[winston]

not vested

Why OpenAI’s IPO Plans Could Be a Massive Win for Microsoft

By Chris Markoch

Microsoft’s OpenAI stake could now be worth roughly $228 billion following OpenAI’s latest funding round and restructuring.

OpenAI’s long-term Azure commitment may provide Microsoft with a major recurring AI revenue stream through 2030.

Investors may be undervaluing Microsoft stock by overlooking the embedded value of its OpenAI ownership stake.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

Microsoft Is Spending Billions on AI, But Investors Aren’t Buying It

by Chris Markoch

Microsoft is investing heavily in AI infrastructure through a massive multiyear CapEx cycle.

Azure AI revenue growth is accelerating but investors remain focused on profitability and returns.

Microsoft Build 2026 could provide important catalysts tied to enterprise AI adoption and Copilot monetization.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

not vested

Microsoft Stock Discount May Be Ending as AI Catalysts Build

by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 5/25/2026.

Microsoft’s AI revenue run rate surged 123% year-over-year to $37 billion, reinforcing its leadership position in enterprise AI.

MSFT still trades at roughly 25x forward earnings, a steep discount to its five-year average valuation.

Technical traders are watching a potential bull flag setup that could send shares back toward the $510-$515 range if resistance breaks.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

not vested

Microsoft Just Gave Investors 3 Dates They Can't Afford to Ignore

by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 6/11/2026.

Microsoft Build 2026 showcased the company's vision for agentic AI but investors remain focused on whether Copilot can generate enough revenue to justify record AI infrastructure spending.

Three upcoming events—Q4 FY2026 earnings, Microsoft Ignite 2026, and Q1 FY2027 earnings—could provide critical evidence that Microsoft's AI monetization strategy is gaining traction.

Even if Copilot adoption accelerates, Microsoft's $190 billion capital expenditure plan and ongoing infrastructure constraints remain important risks for investors to monitor.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

not vested

Why is the share price of Microsoft weak?

Microsoft's share price has experienced significant weakness due to investor anxiety over massive AI-related spending, slowing Azure cloud revenue growth and regulatory pressures.

The ongoing sell-off has wiped billions from its market value and pushed the stock to its lowest valuation in a decade.

The primary drivers of this decline include:

Escalating AI Capital Expenditures: Microsoft and other hyperscalers project heavy infrastructure investments (reaching nearly $190 billion), which has squeezed gross margins and made investors question the timeline for AI returns.

Slower Cloud Growth: Investors were spooked by disappointing growth and margin compression in the flagship Azure cloud platform, which is crucial to Microsoft's overall growth trajectory.

Legal and Regulatory Headwinds: The company faces proposed securities class-action lawsuits concerning its AI disclosure practices and is facing regulatory scrutiny from the European Union over cloud market practices.

Shifting AI Landscape: Uncertainty regarding Microsoft's ongoing relationship with OpenAI—and the potential for AI tools to cannibalize legacy software products like Microsoft Office—has weighed on sentiment.

Macroeconomic Pressures: Hawkish shifts in the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections have broadly pressured high-growth, mega-cap tech stocks.

Source: Google AI

[behappyalways]

Why Microsoft's $80B Xbox Bet Backfired | WSJ What Went Wrong
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zpqTnv7H2eo

[winston]

not vested

I’ll Keep Buying Microsoft Because of This Simple, Extremely Powerful Advantage

by Alex Sirois

Microsoft sells a $30 Copilot add-on to 400 million captive enterprise seats, at near-zero acquisition cost, generating 80%+ gross margin recurring revenue.

AWS lacks Microsoft's embedded productivity suite and Alphabet lacks its 15 million paid Copilot seats and enterprise switching-cost moat.

MSFT trades at a forward P/E of 20 despite 18% revenue growth, with $627 billion in contracted backlog and near-unanimous analyst Buy ratings.

A company that already sits inside the workflow of the enterprise world and gets to sell AI to that captive base at software margins.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) ships a $30-per-user Copilot add-on to a captive base of over 400 million commercial seats at near-zero customer acquisition cost and books the revenue as 80%+ gross margin recurring software cash flow.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 03669.html

[winston]

not vested

<Research> CLSA Raises Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) TP Sharply to USD700 on Dual-engine Growth in AI Cloud and Copilot

CLSA published a research report stating that Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) Azure cloud business growth has accelerated, while the outlook for paid Copilot users has also improved significantly.

The broker expects the market to reassess the value of its enterprise distribution platform, and therefore sharply raised its TP from USD535 to USD700, with an Outperform rating.

The report said that in the AI era, capital expenditure and market share are almost directly linked, and Azure must continue investing.

Capital expenditure of about USD190 billion in FY2026 (USD175 billion after accounting adjustments) is only the minimum requirement to maintain market share.

Regarding Copilot, CLSA said its latest quarter saw an increase of 10 million paid users, reflecting ongoing product improvement.

It forecasts paid users will reach 150 million by the end of FY2029, above the previous forecast of 90 million, but still only one-third of the more than 450 million paid user base of M365.

The broker raised its FY2027 to FY2029 EPS forecasts for Microsoft Corporation by 4.7% to 18.1%, representing 5% to 18% above market consensus expectations, and used a 30x calendarized P/E for 2027 (a 10% premium to the five-year average) as the valuation basis for the TP.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

No Hangover: Revisiting Microsoft One Week After Earnings
Authored by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 8/7/2026.

Microsoft shares surged more than 25% after its July 29 earnings report, driven by 18% revenue growth and 43% Azure growth that eased AI monetization concerns.

Long-term power agreements with Chevron and Constellation Energy suggest that demand for Microsoft's AI data center buildout is real, diversified, and multi-year in nature.

Microsoft's free cash flow fell 23% year over year amid rising capital expenditures, raising valuation concerns even as the company maintains positive cash flow.

Source: Market Beat

[behappyalways]

After Bill Gates became friends with Warren Buffett, he began to diversify his portfolio and sold Microsoft shares.

Bill Gates' fortune today is 138 billion dollars, if he hadn't diversified it would be 1.33 trillion dollars.
https://x.com/QCompounding/status/2107924700382867857